Authored by Leonard B. Casiple

Capstone Completed by Matthew Burdette, Leonard B. Casiple, Deborah Gow

Faculty Advisor : Dr. Loredana Carson

California Lutheran University @ the School of Management

Key Points

1. The County is the leader in educating all stakeholders about sea level rise.
2. A constituency that remains “unclear” about SLR will result in disagreements that diminish the legitimacy of County SLR initiatives.
3. Targeted messaging that is aimed at resonating with industries, neighborhoods, social and cultural groups, and DoD employees will become the tide that lifts all boats.
4. County level surveys provide persistent feedback that will improve education programs. Educate now to prevent misunderstanding in the future.

Thesis

Sea level rise (SLR) affects coastal resiliency and threatens vulnerable infrastructure. However, anecdotal narratives divide communities and industry. A May 2021 Ventura County survey indicated that not all respondents were fully aware of the many factors that cause sea level rise (County of Ventura, 2021). Using the language within the 2040 Ventura County General Plan, strategies should prioritize the targeted education of stakeholders to erase anecdotal narratives that skew sea level rise public opinion. A well-informed public will be more engaged when policies must shift in the future.

Background Analysis

Between the late 1800s and the 1980s, worldwide sea level rose 12 cm, or 4.72 inches (National Research Council, 1987). Relative to year 2000 levels, the National Research Council 2012 global sea rise is estimated to range between 3.14 inches — 9.05 inches by 2030, 7.06 inches — 1.57 feet by 2050, and 0.89 feet — 4.59 feet by 2100 (National Research Council, 2012). NASA’s 2011 projection for Rincon Island is 0.71 meters (2.32′) (NASA, 2021). With the disparities in projections, it is understandable why some stakeholders are alarmed while others remain uninterested.

In 1976, the Local Coastal Program created by the California Coast Act mandated that coastal counties and cities plan and regulate the conservation and development of coastal resources (Ventura County, 2019). For its unincorporated areas, Ventura’s Local Coastal Program includes the Coastal Area Plan and the Coastal Zoning Ordinance that align land use plans, zoning ordinances, maps and implementation that are consistent with the State’s Coastal Act (Ventura County, 2021).

Sea levels rise due to the natural evolution of environmental and geographical factors, and human inputs challenges land use planners. The potential harmful impact can temporarily or seasonally affect transportation corridors, agricultural areas, the availability of drinking water, and the strategic capabilities of Department of Defense facilities in Ventura County.

In FY 2015, the total economic contribution of Naval Base Ventura County (NBVC) amounted to $2B within the Region of Influence. Employment in the defense space added $710M in salaries, $77M in state and local taxes, and employed 18,776 personnel and contractors (Naval Base Ventura County, n.d.). To add, NBVC is a key component to national defense due to its “superior geographical location that allows direct access to restricted air and sea-space” (Naval Base Ventura County, n.d.).

At the city level, the areas of the City of Ventura along the coast that will be most affected by sea level rise are the Midtown-Downtown and the Southwest Economic Subareas that together employ 31% or 19,286 employees (Stanley R. Hoffman Associates et. al., 2019). In the last 90 years, Oxnard has already experienced about 3 inches of sea level rise. “There are 4,084 properties in Oxnard that have greater than a 26% chance of being severely affectedby flooding over the next 30 years. This represents 9% of all properties in the city” (“Oxnard, California,” n.d.). Flood damage will strain Oxnard’s resources due to the large number of low- income citizens who live in areas with a high risk for flooding.

A matter of regional differentiation is that on the west coast, sea-level rise projections and actual results will be impacted by local factors including land motion in California, Oregon, and Washington caused by plate tectonics, sedimentary compaction, and change in fluid levels in reservoirs in addition to the overt rise in ocean volume caused by melting arctic ice.

California is most threatened by ice melting in Alaska, due to its proximity to the west coast. However, melting ice from the south pole also causes sea-level rise along the entire western coast of the United States, demonstrating that what happens globally can have a serious impact locally (National Research Council, 2012). The west coast of the United States is tectonically active, straddling three plate boundaries [,] those along the San Andreas Fault Zone have less impact on sea level because of the primary motions are horizontal and much of the fault is further inland (National Research Council et al., 2012, p. 17).

As in many scientific discussions, the public is easily led astray by words that have precise meanings to scientists but are more broadly used in general discourse. Certain expressions relating to probability such as likely and unlikely can be misread or misinterpreted by the media covering these stories written by scientists. What results is confusion and a vague sentiment that these global impacts will not impact local communities (Priestley, Heine & Milfont, 2021).

The Policy Idea

The County should adapt a five-phase approach to dovetail SLR policy with implementation.

• First, the County should address the SLR issue by latching on to the language already found in the 2040 General Plan.
• Second, through inter-agency cooperation with cities and the Department of Defense, the County should create a county-wide SLR education program that is specifically targeted for the businesses and citizens in each land use designation area or economic zone indicated in the 2040 General Plan.
• Third, the County should control the SLR narrative through an aggressive, countywide, and persistent educational campaign through regularly scheduled public forums and well-timed announcements using various media.
• Fourth, the County should capture the benefits of the education program by conducting a comprehensive survey in 2023 that includes demographic data (salary, age, career/job, business type, job title, political affiliation, length of residency within Ventura County, and questions beyond “calibrated uncertainty language”) targeted for each sector outlined in the 2040 General Plan.
• Fifth, refine the education program based on the findings of the 2023 survey.

Policy Analysis

Moore’s Strategic Triangle Model (authorizing environment, operational capacity, and public value) guides public administrators to use the most effective and efficient process to deliver services. In Ventura County, the constituency forms the authorizing body and is the source of “legitimacy and support” (Clark, 2017). In turn, Ventura County’s administrators manage the county’s resources to optimize governmental operational capacity. By balancing the tug-of-war between the constituents and administrators, public value is achieved.

Despite the ubiquitous amount of scientific data, in Ventura County, the constituency is fractured and perceptions about SLR are fragmented by street-level, anecdotal narratives. A confused and under-educated public creates its own obstacles that diminish the goal of synchronicity between policy and project implementation.

Ventura County should prioritize the education of its constituents, using language that resonates with each culture, industry, and sector to set the conditions for unimpeded SLR project implementation. Efforts to push SLR initiatives that remain “unclear” to stakeholders will only create more confusion as time progresses, and as other agencies/sectors/neighborhoods become involved. The time-space entanglement will create compounded inefficiencies in the future and will hamper synchronization of policies and projects.

A tangible solution that is already in existence is the 2040 County General Plan. The plan breaks down the county into manageable sectors, namely: 1) rural, agricultural, and open space policy; 2) growth management; 3) orderly development; 4) area designations; 5) land use pattern; 6) infill development; 7) residential planned development; 8) coastal residential planned development; 9) mixed use, commercial, and industrial; and 10) regional housing allocation (Resource Management Agency, 2020).

A targeted education program that resonates with each social, cultural, economic, and political segment within each sector will elevate the county-wide knowledge of SLR issues at the same pace. Stakeholders will be on “equal footing” and will become less combative when the County implements projects or shifts SLR policies in the future.

Copyright Leonard Casiple 2023. All rights reserved.

About the author: Leo Casiple is a first-generation American who grew up in Southern Philippines under martial law. He spent much of his 21-year career in the US Army as a Green Beret.

Leo is currently a doctoral student at Northeastern University’s Doctor of Law and Policy program (2022–2025 Cohort). He earned his education from California Lutheran University (MPPA), ASU Thunderbird School of Global Management (MBA in Global Management), Excelsior University (BS in Liberal Arts, Ethnic and Area Studies), Academy of Competitive Intelligence (Master of Competitive Intelligence™), Defense Language Institute and Foreign Language Center (18-month Arabic Language Course), and the US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (Special Forces Qualification Course and Psychological Operations Specialist Course).

For more information about the author, click here: Leo’s LinkedIn Profile

REFERENCES

Clark, I. (2017, September 12). Moore’s strategic triangle. Atlas of Public Management https://www.atlas101.ca/pm/concepts/moores-strategic-triangle/

City of Ventura. (2019, October 11). Economic Base Analysis, 2019 Economic Findings and Policy Implications. Ventura, CA, Official Website. https://www.cityofventura.ca.gov/DocumentCenter/View/19764/Economic-Base-Study- 20191011?bidId=

Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (2017, October 15). County of Ventura Market and Economic Impact Analysis Report. Economic Vitality Strategic Plan. https://www.vcevsp.org/wp-content/uploads/Market-and-Impact-Analysis-Report.pdf

National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (2021). IPCC AR6 sea level projection tool. NASA. https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool

National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, & Committee on Sea Level Rise in California; Oregon; and Washington. (2012). Sea-level rise for the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, present, and future. National Academies Press.

National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, Marine Board, & Committee on Engineering Implications of Changes in Relative Mean Sea Level. (1987). Responding to changes in sea level: Engineering implications. National Academies Press.

Naval Base Ventura County. (n.d.). Partners for a Compatible Future. Navy Region Southwest. https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrsw/installations/navbase_ventura_county.html

Oxnard, California. (n.d.). Flood Factor. https://floodfactor.com/city/oxnard-california/654652_fsid

Priestley, R. K., Heine, Z., & Milfont, T. L. (2021). Public understanding of climate change-related sea- level rise. PLoS ONE, 16(7), e0254348. https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A667980185/AONE?u=callutheran&sid=bookmark-AONE&xid=6d9aef1c

Resource Management Agency. (2020, September 15). Ventura County General Plan. County of Ventura. https://docs.vcrma.org/images/pdf/planning/plans/Final_2040_General_Plan_docs/VCGPU_02_Land_Use_Element_2020_09_15_web.pdf

Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., Lisa Wise Consulting, Inc., & Economic Transformations Group, Inc. (2019, October 11).

City of Ventura Economic Base Analysis, 2019. Ventura, CA, Official Website. https://www.cityofventura.ca.gov/DocumentCenter/View/19764/Economic-Base-Study- 20191011?bidId=

Surging Seas Risk Finder. (n.d.). See your local sea level and coastal flood risk. Climate Central. https://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/place/oxnard.ca.us?comparisonType=place &forecastType= NOAA2017_int_p50&level=3&unit=ft

Ventura County Resource Management Agency Planning Division. (2021). VC Resilient Coastal Adaptation Project. County of Ventura.

Ventura County Resource Management Agency Planning Division. (n.d.). Local coastal program. Welcome to RMA. https://vcrma.org/local-coastal-program

Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com.