I. Introduction.
The concept and the place of conducting work is ever changing. With the advent of the portability of devices, advances in software, and ubiquity of cloud computing, work can be accomplished virtually, stored in perpetuity, and retrieved with relative ease. Collaboration is faster and cooperation more robust. Work is being done asynchronously, documents edited within seconds, virtual signatures now carry the same legal credibility as on paper, and all work is time-stamped for verifiability and accountability. Despite that production can be done anywhere, the speed of telecommuting can still be throttled down if urban and telecom networks are disjointed and not updated to sustain the demands of a mobile workforce.
“Sustainability is quintessentially about the appreciation of the limits imposed on us by the earth” (Senbel, 1995).
The input of urban planners and approval of government affect how the virtual terrain can be re-shaped and optimized. When done right, urban planning can sustain economies, preserve the environment, and facilitate the creation of wealth. If not designed properly, or if one system upsets the natural order that is unique to every city community’s economic engine “extreme poverty[,]…threat to the natural systems equal to that of industrialization” (Senbel, 1995). Incongruent design leads to less utility, and therefore less frequent social interactions and business transactions. If not addressed, urban design that isolates people from others, or is unfriendly to remote work could contribute to the poverty that Senbel discussed.
II. Toffler’s Third Wave in the Electronically Connected Urban Core.
A. Autonomous and Asynchronous.
In 1980, Alvin Toffler coined the knowledge-based economy as the Third Wave “evolution in the information age would transform the world and create an electronic global village” (Case, n.d.). In the information age, work becomes more autonomous and asynchronous. The employee has more input on how, how much, and where work is done.
The “revolution is not only in technology, but in the social, economic and political organizational structure; in short, a complete upheaval” (Muir, 1998). We are an inventive people. The revolution/evolution of technology is going to continue to be the prime mover of society.
B.Three Waves of Wireless.
According to the Progressive Policy Institute, wireless job growth has taken on three waves since 1990. Wave 1 shifted analog to wireless (1990–2007), Wave 2 (2007–2019) digitized content and created the App Economy. 5G, the Wave 3 is expected enhance machine-to-machine communications and increase network speeds up to 20Gbps, while adding 4.6 million jobs to the economy. The 5G wave will increase the momentum of business, reduce start-up costs, and increase the competitiveness of many industries.
III. Why the Shift to Remote Work Complicates Urban Planning.
A. Information Era Trade Routes.
During the industrial era, “the foundations of cities were often linked to the access to trade routes, generally located near major roads and rivers [,]…thirty years ago, interstate interchanges helped many communities to prosper (Fidelman, 1994; Muir, 1998). “Technology infrastructures are now the railways and highways of the future [,]…communications infrastructure is likely to become a key factor in the evolution of communities, and a major factor for economic development” (Muir, 1998). This could possibly lead to a point where the number of traffic lanes and proximity to the city center will no longer play a factor in economic momentum.
B. Remote Work Aligns with Environmental Policies.
With employees staying at home, development can shift to high-density construction that will alleviate the housing crisis. With less automobiles on the roads, cities will spend less on maintenance and will no longer be challenged with generating funds for road widening.
Based on estimates, “if those who have a work-from-home compatible job and a desire to work remotely did so just half the time, the greenhouse gas reduction would be the equivalent to taking the entire New York State workforce off the road” (Global Workplace Analytics, 2020).
C. Remote Work Provides a Reason to Move from the City Center.
“The freedom gained through information technology will allow workers to move further and further away from city centers” (Senbel, 1995). Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork said that “many people see remote work as an opportunity to relocate to where they want and where they can afford to live” (Akala, A., 2020). This is a direct threat to the efforts of local governments to concentrate workers within the urban core.
D. Metro Areas Shrinking Before the Pandemic.
Reliable connectivity in rural areas could delay the shift to urban living. As shown by the trend before the pandemic, “America’s three biggest metro areas — New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago — were already shrinking. Downtown areas were already losing population [,]…given the okay to go remote, workers in expensive cities may use their freedom to move to cheaper metros where they can afford more space, inside and outside” (Thompson, D., 2020).
The downward pressure on wages, the rising cost of urban living, and the cost savings from online work will continue to shape employment decisions for decades to come.
E. The 2018 Farm Bill Conflicts with Urban Core Initiatives.
At the federal level, Public Law 115–334, also known as the 2018 Farm Bill, adds $350M in broadband-related funding though “Subtitle B of Title VI of the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2019 which aims to connect Rural Americans to High-Speed Broadband” (White House, 2019). Although well meaning, this policy seems to be in direct conflict with local goals to shift the population back to the urban core.
F. Pandemic Fears Fuel Intention of Teleworkers to Relocate.
A recent NPR article stated that “as coronavirus cases continue to spike and working from home seems permanent, many Americans are planning to set off to live in new places [,]…14 to 23 million Americans intend to relocate to a different city or region as a result of telework” (Akala, A., 2020). This “large migration is motivated by people no longer confined to the city where their job is located” (Akala, A., 2020). Health concerns will drive more online work, and/or shift work to less concentrated areas.
G. Turning Urban Live-Work Concept on Its Head.
One of the selling points of urban living is the ability to live and work in the same structure without the need commute. “You live where you work is a truism as ancient as grain farming[,]…but the internet specializes in disentangling the bundles of previous centuries [,]…with the pandemic shuttering the face-to-face economy, it seems poised to weaken the spatial relationship between work and home” (Thompson, D., 2020).
With advances in connectivity that now provide coverage in previously unreachable areas, persons who live in rural areas, as well as families who prefer the suburbs can live and work — in place — and will not see a benefit in uprooting the family to shift to urban living.
It will be interesting to see how the competing forces to expand the economy, reduce labor costs, while improving productivity will shape organizational and governmental policies.
IV. The Spread of Remote Work.
A. Exponential Growth.
According to a 2020 report by Global Workplace Analytics, “5 million employees (3.6% of the U.S. employee workforce) currently work-at-home half-time or more [,]…regular work-at-home has grown 173% since 2005, 11% faster than the rest of the workforce [,]…and nearly 47x faster than the self-employed population” (Global Workplace Analytics, 2020). With 5G, transactions will be faster thus hastening the velocity of money.
B. People With the Flexibility to Work-From-Home.
“Fifty six percent of employees have a job where at least some of what they do could be done remotely [,]…studies repeatedly show desks are vacant 50–60% of the time (Global Workplace Analytics, 2020). This finding and the positive results of remote work during the pandemic will shift corporate focus towards working from home. Businesses will no longer be required to maintain leases for office buildings which will severely affect the commercial real estate market.
If changes in the commercial real estate market continue to shift, urban planners might be forced to re-designate residential codes to include work not currently considered as appropriate to the “home.”
C. People Who Want to Work from Home.
“Eighty percent of employees want to work from home at least some of the time” (State of Remote Work 2019, Owl Labs; Global Workplace Analytics, 2020). In the federal government, “only 12% of federal employees say they would not want to work from home at least some of the time” (Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey 2018; Global Workplace Analytics, 2020). This means that 88% of the 2M federal workforce, or 1.76M want to work from home. Who would not want this flexibility?
D. Companies In the Forefront of Remote Work.
According to the Atlantic, as a response to the pandemic “Twitter has told staff they can stay home permanently” (Thompson, D., 2020). “Facebook announced plans for half of its employees to work from home permanently” (Akala, A., 2020). 50,000 employees of the Royal Bank of Scotland are “working from home until 2021 [,]…and transport company Uber extending its voluntary work from home policy for corporate employees until the end of June 2021” (Hubbard, J., 2020).
E. Further Liberalization of The Employment Arrangement.
Siemens a Global Fortune 500 company “with over 380,000 employees [,]…will allow employees worldwide to work from anywhere they feel comfortable ‘for an average of two to three days a week’[,]…And yes, this is a permanent standard that extends beyond the current pandemic” (Bariso, J., 2020). Netflix before the pandemic already did not “track vacation days for salaried employees [,]…allows its people to take time off as desired, as long as it meets certain guidelines” (Bariso, J., 2020).
Organizations that depend on minute-by-minute metrics of its employees will not be able to compete with the more “free” work models of its competitors. Robots as delivery drivers?
V. Effects of Remote Work on the Economy.
A. Easier Job Changes.
“Thirty five percent of employees would change jobs for the opportunity to work remotely full time (47% millennials and 31% boomers)” (State of the American Workforce, Gallup, 2016; Global Workplace Analytics, 2020). The combination of a shocking halt to the economy and the ubiquity of networks allow productivity at home, and at the same time, provides a platform to search for other jobs privately.
In the past, employees worked for one company until retirement. Today, the average worker changes jobs more frequently. A 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics study in 2019 (reissued October 2020), found that those born between 1957–1964 “held an average of 12.3 jobs from age 18 to 52” (BLS, 2019). The ease of switching from one remote job to another, or the ease of starting one’s own business could increase the rate of employee turnover for industry and government alike.
B. Side Gigs.
Additionally, “as people realize that their connection to the office is virtual, more Americans may take on side gigs and even start their own companies [,]…tools that co-workers use to stay connected[,]…can be repurposed to go solo” (Thompson, D., 2020). Shifting from the main telework job to a worker’s “side gig” is much easier and millions would save time and resources because they no longer need to commute.
C. Employee Savings.
It is estimated that an employee will “save between $2,500 and $4,000 per year by working at home half the time],]…due to reduced costs for travel, parking and food [,]…half-time telecommuter saves the equivalent of 11 workdays per year in time they would have otherwise spent commuting[,]…extreme commuter saves more than three times that” (Global Workplace Analytics, 2020).
Even if commuting is required, to stay competitive and to attract the best employees, will be forced to use a mixed online/brick and mortar model of employment.
D. Technology Fixes the Cracks in the Labor Market.
In describing the information age, Muir pointed out that “the work regime is transforming itself from ties to the organization to a reliance on the self” (Muir, 1998). Tech companies have facilitated this transformation with the Gig economy in food delivery, transportation, and in the arts (music, design, and writing clients.
“Gig economy platforms are disrupting established industries in cities all over the world [,]…due less to revolutionary technology than to finding the fault lines in the existing labor market, according to Jason Jackson, Ford Career Development Assistant Professor in Political Economy and Urban Planning in MIT’s Department of Urban Studies and Planning” (Omier, 2019).
E. Gig Economy Transparency May Decrease the Gender and Minority Pay Gaps.
A 2013 investigation by the Boston Globe pointed out “fraud and worker abuse rampant in the legacy taxi industry. [,]…while taxi drivers have seen major income losses, the picture for the labor market as a whole is much more complicated” (Omier, 2019). ). Companies such as Lyft and Uber upended the taxi medallion system. More importantly, gone are the days where unscrupulous taxi drivers scammed riders who were unfamiliar with the routes.
A healthy Gig economy can flatten the income curve and allow workers the opportunity to become autonomous as business owners. Despite the findings of a UCLA and Harvard Business Review survey that indicated “80% of employees don’t want their co-workers to know how much they make [,]…a survey from The Creative Group indicates that the marketing and advertising industries are making headway [,]…75% [,]…offer some level of transparency, while 34% disclose it all” (Smith, 2019). In the past, topics about salary and wages were taboo; however, with the ease of gathering earnings data “wage transparency is seen as a possible way to decrease the gender and minority pay gaps” (Smith, 2019).
5G and the economic model that it presents could become a hedge against litigation against harassment, abuse, and workforce bullying.
F. Corporate and Individual Wealth Creation.
The speed of the internet can enhance the profitability of certain industries. “Stock exchanges can now execute trades in less than a half a millionth of a second — more than a million times faster than ever before” (Baumann, 2013). Companies such as Spread Networks, operate “2,000-square-foot amplifier facilities that dot the landscape every 75-or-so-miles between Chicago and New York City, ensuring that fiber-optic signals travel between the two points as clearly and quickly as possible” (Baumannn, 2013). As consumers and investors, we can use amplified network speeds to compound investment income or to protect assets from events such as the 2010 “’flash crash’, (where) nearly $1 trillion in shareholder value was wiped out in a matter of minutes before the market rebounded” (Baumann, 2913).
Increased Employer Profits Due to Remote Work.
It is estimated that “a typical employer can save an average of $11,000 per half-time telecommuter per year[,]…result of increased productivity, lower real estate costs, reduced absenteeism and turnover, and better disaster preparedness” (Global Workplace Analytics, 2020).
VI. 5G and the Remote Work Economy
Inits 2019 report on the impact of emerging technologies, Michael Kratsios, Deputy Assistant to the President for Technology Policy, stated that 4G “increased GDP by $100 billion in 2016, created more jobs, lowered consumer costs, and ensured that the United States was the home of the entrepreneurial revolution of advanced wireless application” (White House, 2019). It’s in the best interest of government to posture the country as the dominant leader of innovation.
5G and Network Slicing.
The 5G network “will improve current systems and services by offering [,]…increased data rates (up to 20Gbps), lower latency, and better mobility [,]…include new sets of applications such as Internet of Things, connected vehicles, and others” (White House, 2019). 5G’s ability to be sliced for dedicated use will ensure that bandwidth is never throttled even during peak times. “5G [,]…has its own distinct capabilities and infrastructure [,]…as many as 17 different technologies, including 5G New Radio (NR), millimeter wave, massive (MIMO (multiple-input multiple output) radios and network slicing technology (Jabil, 2019).
The improved data transfer rates, by network slicing, will aid in local, regional, national, and global economic transactions, thus providing more opportunities to those who, under normal circumstance, would be excluded from competing.
VII. 5G’s Effects on Urban Planning.
A. Potential to Attract Workers to Move to Rural Areas.
“Nineteenth and twentieth century urban planning in North America separated residential suburbs from the noise, traffic and pollution or urban industrial areas” (Terzis, 2005). As previously mentioned, Public Law 115–334, also known as the 2018 Farm Bill [,]… aims to connect Rural Americans to High-Speed Broadband” (White House, 2019).
If the urban core’s vigor is not marketed as an attractive way to live, connected remote workers in T1 and T2 will refuse to participate in the revitalization and infill measures of the city center.
B. Increased Number of 5G Cell Towers in Residential Areas.
“Four G cell towers typically ranged from 50–200 feet in height [,]…located in industrial and urban areas [,]…coverage range allows towers to be spaced miles apart” (NAHB, 2020). 5G “are smaller in size and must be installed closer together to support their high-power but short range [,]…will create a network of small cell sites with antennas as close as few hundred feet apart, potentially in residential areas” (NAHB, 2020).
How will the American landscape look with more cell towers? How will we communities stay aesthetically pleasing?
C. Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) for Machine-to-machine (M2M) Communications.
One of the 5G innovations that will enhance connectivity in dense urban areas is the Lower Power Wide Area technology. The technology can “transmit relatively short messages at lower data rates at intermittent times over a wide area (e.g., up 10 km) and can transmit through walls and other physical barriers” (White House, 2019). These machines can be “turned on anywhere and anytime to sense and interact with the environment instantly” (Raza, U., et. al., 2017).
The number of “connected M2M devices and consumer electronics will surpass the number of human subscribers using mobile phone, personal computers, laptops, and tablets by 2020” (Raza, U., et. al., 2017).
This capability will allow real-time status of all elements of the Transect that facilitate the entire spectrum of the economy.
D. Autonomous Vehicles and Productivity While Commuting.
For those who choose to commute from beyond the urban core, a future of autonomous vehicles can free the driver from the task of keeping an eye on the road. Advancements will allow the driver to rest while commuting.
E. Shortened Workday.
With the 5G network and the Internet of Things, the workday could be shortened from the traditional 8 hours which will more time for educational pursuits, hobbies, and family obligations. Potentially, the vehicle could become the “third place” (Butler, S., Diaz, C., 2017) between work and home, if the café or other public venues become inaccessible.
Will 5G give overworked Americans the rest they deserve?
VIII. How Local Government Can Capitalize on Remote Work Arrangements.
A. Build the Urban Core for the “Sandwich Generation.”
According to the Pew Research Center, 47% of adults in their 40s and 50s have a parent aged 65 or older and are either raising a young child or financially supporting a grown child (18 or older)[,]…one-in-seven middle-aged adults (15%( is providing financial support to both an aging parent and a child” (Parker, K., Patten, E., 2020). With the projected increase of people over 65, these percentages could increase.
B. Highlight Benefits for the “Sandwich Generation” Remote Worker.
Urban plannersand government could provide financial incentives “sandwich generations.” Remote work in the urban core could be sold with the following topics, namely: 1) flexibility to watch both children and the elderly, 2) Urban core proximity to medical facilities for the elderly parent (plus the added medical monitoring by the 5G network), and 3) the ubiquity of online classes for children means that (children, adult parents, and elderly parents) could spend quality time.
C. Exactions from Autonomous Transportation Models, Including Drones.
Local governments began mandating measures to reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) for personal automobiles. The federal government has been exploring charging VMT for commercial trucks.
The Congressional Budget Office “estimates that in 2017, a tax of 1 cent per mile on all roads would have raised about $2.6 billion[,]…if imposed on all commercial trucks and about $1.6 billion if imposed only on those with one or more trailers” (Congressional Budget Office, 2019). However, there are associated costs with implementation in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
The trend to autonomous vehicles, robots, and drones will quickly be upon us with the 5G network. Today is the optimal time to begin formulating a local government revenue model for the “last mile” delivery of goods and services.
IX. Conclusion.
The 5G network is expected to add over 4 million jobs to the economy. However, the flexibility and improved connectivity will provide options for workers to seek cost-efficient locations from which to work.
If local government policies and the urban planning community do not lean forward to eliminate the negative perceptions of living in the urban core, resources could potentially be wasted in the churn of short-term urban core residents which will affect industry profits and reduce government fiscal health.
Copyright Leonard Casiple 2023. All rights reserved.
About the author: Leo Casiple is a first-generation American who grew up in Southern Philippines under martial law. He spent much of his 21-year career in the US Army as a Green Beret.
Leo is currently a doctoral student at Northeastern University’s Doctor of Law and Policy program (2022–2025 Cohort). He earned his education from California Lutheran University (MPPA), ASU Thunderbird School of Global Management (MBA in Global Management), Excelsior University (BS in Liberal Arts, Ethnic and Area Studies), Academy of Competitive Intelligence (Master of Competitive Intelligence™), Defense Language Institute and Foreign Language Center (18-month Arabic Language Course), and the US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (Special Forces Qualification Course and Psychological Operations Specialist Course).
For more information about the author, click here: Leo’s LinkedIn Profile
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